Public municipal finance tools
Capital Backlog Projection Tool
Explore whether unfunded capital needs shrink or accumulate under your annual needs and funding assumptions. Compare baseline and alternative funding with transparent annual data.
No account required. Start with an editable sample.
Reviewed · Editorial responsibility: Aurelius Civic
Results
Baseline ending backlog in Year 10
$24,118,879.37
- Baseline backlog change from Year 0
- $14,118,879.37
- Cumulative new needs
- $36,018,321.37
- Starting backlog plus cumulative new needs
- $46,018,321.37
- Cumulative available funding
- $21,899,442.00
- Available funding coverage of total need
- 0.48×
- Cumulative excess funding (not carried forward)
- $0.00
- First projected year of backlog decline
- No decline within horizon
Interpretation
Escalation applies to new annual needs only, beginning in Year 2; existing backlog carries forward unchanged until funding is applied. Annual funding capacity is used against current needs, with excess reported separately and not carried forward. A decline or zero-backlog milestone does not guarantee future backlog stays low. Scenarios are planning assumptions, not predictions or borrowing approvals.
Backlog paths and funding assumptions
Year 0 starting backlog: $10,000,000.00. Year 1 new needs: $3,000,000.00, escalating 4% annually from Year 2. Only new needs escalate; existing backlog is not re-estimated. Unused capacity is not carried into later years.
Baseline: solid line with circles. Alternative: dashed line with squares. Optional local warning threshold: dotted horizontal line. The annual tables provide identical ending-backlog values.
Local threshold: $20,000,000.00. Starting backlog does not exceed this threshold. Projected warning years below evaluate Year 1 onward using strict greater-than comparison.
Baseline assumptions and milestones
- Pay-as-you-go: $1,000,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Debt capacity: $500,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Grants / external: $250,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Reserve funding: $250,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Ending backlog
- $24,118,879.37
- Backlog change
- $14,118,879.37
- Cumulative new needs
- $36,018,321.37
- Cumulative available funding
- $21,899,442.00
- Cumulative applied funding
- $21,899,442.00
- Cumulative excess funding
- $0.00
- Available funding / starting backlog plus new needs
- 0.48×
- Applied funding / starting backlog plus new needs
- 0.48×
- First year backlog declines
- No decline within horizon
- First zero-backlog milestone
- Not reached within horizon
- First projected year exceeding threshold
- Year 8
Need reconciliation: starting backlog $10,000,000.00 + new needs $36,018,321.37 − applied funding $21,899,442.00 = ending backlog $24,118,879.37. Available funding − excess = applied funding. Available coverage may exceed 1× even if timing leaves later needs unfunded.
| Year | Beginning backlog | New needs | Total needs | Pay-as-you-go | Debt capacity | Grants / external | Reserve funding | Total funding | Applied funding | Excess funding | Ending backlog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10,000,000.00 | $3,000,000.00 | $13,000,000.00 | $1,000,000.00 | $500,000.00 | $250,000.00 | $250,000.00 | $2,000,000.00 | $2,000,000.00 | $0.00 | $11,000,000.00 |
| Year 2 | $11,000,000.00 | $3,120,000.00 | $14,120,000.00 | $1,020,000.00 | $510,000.00 | $255,000.00 | $255,000.00 | $2,040,000.00 | $2,040,000.00 | $0.00 | $12,080,000.00 |
| Year 3 | $12,080,000.00 | $3,244,800.00 | $15,324,800.00 | $1,040,400.00 | $520,200.00 | $260,100.00 | $260,100.00 | $2,080,800.00 | $2,080,800.00 | $0.00 | $13,244,000.00 |
| Year 4 | $13,244,000.00 | $3,374,592.00 | $16,618,592.00 | $1,061,208.00 | $530,604.00 | $265,302.00 | $265,302.00 | $2,122,416.00 | $2,122,416.00 | $0.00 | $14,496,176.00 |
| Year 5 | $14,496,176.00 | $3,509,575.68 | $18,005,751.68 | $1,082,432.16 | $541,216.08 | $270,608.04 | $270,608.04 | $2,164,864.32 | $2,164,864.32 | $0.00 | $15,840,887.36 |
| Year 6 | $15,840,887.36 | $3,649,958.71 | $19,490,846.07 | $1,104,080.80 | $552,040.40 | $276,020.20 | $276,020.20 | $2,208,161.61 | $2,208,161.61 | $0.00 | $17,282,684.46 |
| Year 7 | $17,282,684.46 | $3,795,957.06 | $21,078,641.52 | $1,126,162.42 | $563,081.21 | $281,540.60 | $281,540.60 | $2,252,324.84 | $2,252,324.84 | $0.00 | $18,826,316.68 |
| Year 8 | $18,826,316.68 | $3,947,795.34 | $22,774,112.02 | $1,148,685.67 | $574,342.83 | $287,171.42 | $287,171.42 | $2,297,371.34 | $2,297,371.34 | $0.00 | $20,476,740.68 |
| Year 9 | $20,476,740.68 | $4,105,707.15 | $24,582,447.83 | $1,171,659.38 | $585,829.69 | $292,914.85 | $292,914.85 | $2,343,318.76 | $2,343,318.76 | $0.00 | $22,239,129.07 |
| Year 10 | $22,239,129.07 | $4,269,935.44 | $26,509,064.51 | $1,195,092.57 | $597,546.28 | $298,773.14 | $298,773.14 | $2,390,185.14 | $2,390,185.14 | $0.00 | $24,118,879.37 |
Alternative assumptions and milestones
- Pay-as-you-go: $2,000,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Debt capacity: $1,000,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Grants / external: $250,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Reserve funding: $250,000.00 in Year 1; 2% annual growth after Year 1.
- Ending backlog
- $7,694,297.87
- Backlog change
- -$2,305,702.13
- Cumulative new needs
- $36,018,321.37
- Cumulative available funding
- $38,324,023.50
- Cumulative applied funding
- $38,324,023.50
- Cumulative excess funding
- $0.00
- Available funding / starting backlog plus new needs
- 0.83×
- Applied funding / starting backlog plus new needs
- 0.83×
- First year backlog declines
- Year 1
- First zero-backlog milestone
- Not reached within horizon
- First projected year exceeding threshold
- No exceedance within horizon
Need reconciliation: starting backlog $10,000,000.00 + new needs $36,018,321.37 − applied funding $38,324,023.50 = ending backlog $7,694,297.87. Available funding − excess = applied funding. Available coverage may exceed 1× even if timing leaves later needs unfunded.
| Year | Beginning backlog | New needs | Total needs | Pay-as-you-go | Debt capacity | Grants / external | Reserve funding | Total funding | Applied funding | Excess funding | Ending backlog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10,000,000.00 | $3,000,000.00 | $13,000,000.00 | $2,000,000.00 | $1,000,000.00 | $250,000.00 | $250,000.00 | $3,500,000.00 | $3,500,000.00 | $0.00 | $9,500,000.00 |
| Year 2 | $9,500,000.00 | $3,120,000.00 | $12,620,000.00 | $2,040,000.00 | $1,020,000.00 | $255,000.00 | $255,000.00 | $3,570,000.00 | $3,570,000.00 | $0.00 | $9,050,000.00 |
| Year 3 | $9,050,000.00 | $3,244,800.00 | $12,294,800.00 | $2,080,800.00 | $1,040,400.00 | $260,100.00 | $260,100.00 | $3,641,400.00 | $3,641,400.00 | $0.00 | $8,653,400.00 |
| Year 4 | $8,653,400.00 | $3,374,592.00 | $12,027,992.00 | $2,122,416.00 | $1,061,208.00 | $265,302.00 | $265,302.00 | $3,714,228.00 | $3,714,228.00 | $0.00 | $8,313,764.00 |
| Year 5 | $8,313,764.00 | $3,509,575.68 | $11,823,339.68 | $2,164,864.32 | $1,082,432.16 | $270,608.04 | $270,608.04 | $3,788,512.56 | $3,788,512.56 | $0.00 | $8,034,827.12 |
| Year 6 | $8,034,827.12 | $3,649,958.71 | $11,684,785.83 | $2,208,161.61 | $1,104,080.80 | $276,020.20 | $276,020.20 | $3,864,282.81 | $3,864,282.81 | $0.00 | $7,820,503.02 |
| Year 7 | $7,820,503.02 | $3,795,957.06 | $11,616,460.07 | $2,252,324.84 | $1,126,162.42 | $281,540.60 | $281,540.60 | $3,941,568.47 | $3,941,568.47 | $0.00 | $7,674,891.60 |
| Year 8 | $7,674,891.60 | $3,947,795.34 | $11,622,686.94 | $2,297,371.34 | $1,148,685.67 | $287,171.42 | $287,171.42 | $4,020,399.84 | $4,020,399.84 | $0.00 | $7,602,287.10 |
| Year 9 | $7,602,287.10 | $4,105,707.15 | $11,707,994.26 | $2,343,318.76 | $1,171,659.38 | $292,914.85 | $292,914.85 | $4,100,807.83 | $4,100,807.83 | $0.00 | $7,607,186.42 |
| Year 10 | $7,607,186.42 | $4,269,935.44 | $11,877,121.86 | $2,390,185.14 | $1,195,092.57 | $298,773.14 | $298,773.14 | $4,182,823.99 | $4,182,823.99 | $0.00 | $7,694,297.87 |
Methodology
Escalation and timing convention
Year 0 supplies the starting unfunded backlog. Year 1 uses the entered annual new needs and annual funding amounts without prior growth. Escalation and each source’s funding growth begin in Year 2. Escalation applies to new annual needs only; the existing backlog carries forward without revaluation or additional construction-cost escalation. This convention is used consistently in both scenarios.
Formulas
- Beginning backlog = prior-year ending backlog, or starting backlog for Year 1.
- New needs in Year y = entered Year 1 new needs × (1 + escalation ÷ 100)^(y − 1).
- Funding by source in Year y = that source’s Year 1 amount × (1 + source growth ÷ 100)^(y − 1).
- Total needs = beginning backlog + new needs.
- Total available funding = pay-as-you-go + debt-funded capacity + grants/external funding + reserve funding.
- Applied funding = minimum of total needs and total available funding.
- Ending backlog = maximum of zero and total needs − total available funding.
- Excess funding = maximum of zero and total available funding − total needs.
- Backlog change = final backlog − starting backlog.
Excess is reported as unused modeled annual funding capacity, not negative backlog, and is not carried forward. The model does not decide which individual source is unused, since restrictions and timing may differ. Debt-funded capacity means assumed proceeds available for capital work, not annual debt-service payments. Reserve funding is an assumed annual draw; the model does not check that sufficient reserves exist.
Cumulative coverage and milestones
Cumulative new needs and available, applied, and excess funding are sums over the selected projected years. Total need for coverage = starting backlog + cumulative new needs; summing annual total needs would double-count rollover backlog. Available funding coverage = cumulative available funding ÷ total need. Applied coverage uses cumulative applied funding instead. Ratios are undefined when total need is zero. The reconciliation is ending backlog = starting backlog + cumulative new needs − cumulative applied funding.
Available coverage above 1× does not guarantee every year is funded: early unused capacity is not carried to later years. First decline compares each ending backlog with its own beginning backlog. First zero is Year 0 if the starting backlog is already zero, otherwise the first projected zero. A zero milestone can be followed by a later backlog. A warning means ending backlog strictly exceeds your optional local threshold; equality does not trigger it. Starting threshold pressure is identified separately. Milestones use unrounded values and cover only the selected horizon.
Worked example
The sample starts with USD 10,000,000 unfunded backlog and USD 3,000,000 new annual needs, escalating at 4% after Year 1. Baseline Year 1 funding is USD 1,000,000 pay-as-you-go, USD 500,000 debt capacity, USD 250,000 grants/external, and USD 250,000 reserves: USD 2,000,000 in total, with each source growing 2% annually after Year 1.
Year 1 needs total USD 13,000,000; funding USD 2,000,000; ending backlog USD 11,000,000. Year 2 begins at USD 11,000,000, adds USD 3,120,000 new needs, and applies USD 2,040,000 funding, ending at USD 12,080,000. Annual needs exceed funding and compound faster, so the backlog accumulates. At Year 10, cumulative new needs are USD 36,018,321.37, baseline cumulative funding USD 21,899,442.00, and ending backlog USD 24,118,879.37. The sample’s local warning threshold is USD 20,000,000, an editable planning comparison first exceeded by baseline ending backlog in Year 8.
The alternative starts from the same backlog and new needs but assumes USD 2,000,000 pay-as-you-go, USD 1,000,000 debt capacity, USD 250,000 grants, and USD 250,000 reserves, each growing 2%. Year 1 funding totals USD 3,500,000 and backlog declines to USD 9,500,000. At Year 10, alternative cumulative funding is USD 38,324,023.50 and ending backlog USD 7,694,297.87. All eight alternative amount/growth inputs are independent. Reset and Load sample restore all fields and selections.
Supported inputs and source
Starting backlog, Year 1 needs, funding amounts, and warning threshold range from zero to USD 1 trillion each. Escalation and individual growth assumptions range from −100% to 100%; −100% makes that stream zero from Year 2 onward. Horizons are exactly 5, 10, or 20 projected years. Optional blank funding amounts and rates mean zero. Display rounds USD to cents and ratios to two decimals; calculations use unrounded values.
GFOA: Multi-Year Capital Planning supports identifying capital needs, financing sources, timing, and lifecycle commitments. This tool’s simplified annual escalation and unused-capacity conventions are documented above.
Limitations
This aggregate planning model does not prioritize projects, assess engineering condition, re-estimate existing backlog, or determine borrowing authority. It omits operating-tail costs, debt service, project-specific timing and inflation, procurement delays, grant restrictions, and source eligibility. Debt and recurring grants are assumptions, not approvals or guaranteed awards. Reserve-funded capacity does not establish reserve adequacy.
All sources are assumed available for aggregate annual needs without restrictions or timing differences. Unused capacity is not saved; a more detailed CIP may treat carryforward, project commitments, financing timing, and reserve replenishment differently. The local threshold is not a universal safety or legal limit. Scenario comparisons are not predictions or probability estimates. Review capital, financing, and operating impacts with responsible local officials.